Crypto Market Faces Turbulence Post-April 2 Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Analysts Warn

As the crypto market navigates a turbulent second quarter, analysts at Nansen warn that ongoing tariff-related uncertainties could trigger another downturn following March's correction. Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets may face renewed volatility as U.S. trade policy developments loom, particularly around April 2—a date flagged by former President Donald Trump for potential new tariffs.

Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, assigns a 70% likelihood to another crypto price dip after April 2, citing lingering macroeconomic tensions. However, she views this as a temporary setback within a broader bull market cycle. "After this second correction, I expect stabilization and a path toward revisiting Bitcoin's all-time highs later this year," she shared in a recent interview. Barthere's optimism stems from strong U.S. economic fundamentals, including steady growth and accelerating institutional adoption of crypto, despite softer sentiment indicators.

The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to multi-year highs, reflecting investor anxiety over trade negotiations and tariff exemptions. While Treasury Secretary discussions and potential compromises with trading partners have eased some fears, Barthere cautions that uncertainty could linger through mid-year. "We're in a 'wait-and-see' phase," she noted, adding that the true impact of policy shifts might only crystallize by June.

Despite these headwinds, technical indicators hint at resilience. Bitcoin ETFs recently notched seven consecutive days of net inflows—a first since the market's peak—while the S&P 500 and crypto prices alike have seen traders "buy the dip." Barthere emphasized that hard economic data, such as March's PMI reading of 53.5 (pointing to 1.9% annualized growth), contradicts recession fears. "There's no concrete evidence of a bear market yet," she stated. "Most concerns stem from sentiment, not actual economic weakness."

The road ahead remains bumpy, with Nansen predicting short-term corrections in both crypto and equities. Yet Barthere's base case envisions a rebound post-correction, fueled by regulatory progress and institutional momentum. "This is still a bull market," she reiterated, "just one navigating occasional turbulence." For investors, the message is clear: buckle up for volatility, but keep an eye on the horizon. ?

Crypto's next moves may hinge on Washington's policy decisions, but for now, the bulls aren't backing down.